U.S. Holiday Sales Forecast to Surpass $1 Trillion Despite Economic Headwinds
Retail sales during the 2025 holiday season are projected to break records, with the National Retail Federation forecasting a 3.7% to 4.2% annual growth rate. This WOULD mark the first time seasonal spending crosses the $1 trillion threshold, reaching an estimated $1.01-$1.02 trillion between November and December.
Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Costco stand to benefit from this resilient consumer spending, despite geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. The bullish outlook contrasts with Deloitte's more conservative 2.9%-3.4% growth projection, coming after 2024's 4.3% holiday spending increase.
Potential tariff impacts loom as a wildcard factor that could affect final sales figures. The retail sector's performance during this critical period will serve as a key indicator of consumer confidence and discretionary spending power.
